Heat pump installation costs: what homeowners actually paid
Published May 4, 2025 · Based on NYSERDA public data
What does a heat pump installation actually cost? We pulled 9,692 real project records from NYSERDA open data to answer that question with numbers instead of marketing estimates.
The real numbers
Across all 9,692 installations (2017-2019), the median total project cost was $5,500. The average was $7,514 — pulled up by a long tail of expensive projects. Here is the full distribution:
| Cost range | Projects | % of total |
|---|---|---|
| Under $5,000 | 4,376 | 45% |
| $5,000 - $9,999 | 3,148 | 32% |
| $10,000 - $19,999 | 1,698 | 18% |
| $20,000+ | 470 | 5% |
Nearly half of all installations cost less than $5,000. Only 5% exceeded $20,000 — typically large multi-zone systems in bigger homes.
What drives the price
Three factors explain most of the variation in heat pump installation costs:
1. Building type and size
Single-family detached homes have a median cost of $5,950. Attached homes and small multifamily buildings are cheaper at $4,500 median. The reason is straightforward: larger homes need more capacity, more ductwork (or more indoor heads for ductless systems), and more labor hours.
2. Location
Urban areas with competitive installer markets (NYC boroughs) trend 30-40% cheaper than rural upstate counties. Queens median: $4,300. Tompkins County median: $9,914. Part of this reflects housing stock differences, but installer density and competition matter too.
3. System configuration
A single-zone ductless mini-split is the cheapest option. Multi-zone systems with 3-4 indoor heads cost significantly more. Ducted systems or whole-home replacements sit at the top of the range. The dataset does not break out system configuration in detail, but building type and cost range serve as rough proxies.
After incentives
Every project in the dataset received a NYSERDA incentive. Median incentive: $500. Median net cost after incentive: $4,500.
Today's incentives are substantially larger. The federal Inflation Reduction Act provides a 30% tax credit (up to $2,000) for heat pump installations. Many states layer additional rebates on top. A $5,500 installation in 2018 might net out closer to $3,000-$3,500 under current programs.
How these numbers compare to current estimates
These are 2017-2019 costs. Equipment prices, labor rates, and supply chains have all shifted since then. Use this data for relative comparison — understanding the range, the shape of the distribution, and what factors move the needle — rather than as a direct estimate of what you will pay today.
For a more detailed breakdown, browse the full dataset of 9,692 installations with filters for county, building type, and cost range. Or read our analysis of heat pump costs specifically in New York.
Got a recent quote? Add it to the database and help other homeowners see what current installations actually cost.
About the data
Source: NYSERDA Statewide Air Source Heat Pump Projects (data.ny.gov). Total project cost is the full installed cost as filed with NYSERDA. Records with missing or zero cost values were excluded. All figures are nominal dollars for the project completion year.